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排序方式: 共有213条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Chou CJ 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2006,119(1-3):571-598
Statistical analyses were applied at the Hanford Site, USA, to assess groundwater contamination problems that included (1) determining local backgrounds to ascertain whether a facility is affecting the groundwater quality and (2) determining a ‘pre-Hanford' groundwater background to allow formulation of background-based cleanup standards. The primary purpose of this paper is to extend the random effects models for (1) assessing the spatial, temporal, and analytical variability of groundwater background measurements; (2) demonstrating that the usual variance estimate s
2, which ignores the variance components, is a biased estimator; (3) providing formulas for calculating the amount of bias; and (4) recommending monitoring strategies to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background concentrations. A case study is provided. Results indicate that (1) without considering spatial and temporal variability, there is a high probability of false positives, resulting in unnecessary remediation and/or monitoring expenses; (2) the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background, and enhance the power of the statistical tests in general, is to increase the number of background wells; and (3) background for a specific constituent should be considered as a statistical distribution, not as a single value or threshold. The methods and the related analysis of variance tables discussed in this paper can be used as diagnostic tools in documenting the extent of inherent spatial and/or temporal variation and to help select an appropriate statistical method for testing purposes. 相似文献
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Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut. 相似文献
3.
The Variability of Estimates of Variance, and Its Effect on Power Analysis in Monitoring Design 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Power analysis can be a valuable aid in the design of monitoringprograms. It requires an estimate of variance, which may come from a pilot study or an existing study in a similar habitat. For marine benthic infauna, natural variation in abundances canbe considerable, raising the question of reliability of varianceestimates. We used two existing monitoring programs to generatemultiple estimates of variance. These estimates were found to differ from nominated best estimates by 50% or more in 43% of cases, in turn leading to under or over-estimation of samplesize in the design of a notional monitoring program. The twostudies, from the same general area, using the same samplingmethods and spanning a similar time scale, gave estimatesvarying by more than an order of magnitude for 25% of taxa.We suggest that pilot studies for ecological monitoring programsof marine infauna should include at least two sampling times. 相似文献
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Introduction: Exploratory data reduction techniques, such as Factor Analysis (FA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), are widely used in questionnaire validation with ordinal data, such as Likert Scale data, even though both techniques are indicated to metric measures. In this context, this study presents an e-survey, conducted to obtain self-reported behaviors between Brazilian drivers (N = 1,354, 55.2% of males) and Portuguese drivers (N = 348, 46.6% of males) based on 20 items from the Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) on a five-point Likert Scale. This paper aimed to examine DBQ validation using FA and PCA compared to Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CATPCA) which is more indicative to use with Likert Scale data. Results: The results from all techniques confirmed the most replicated factor structure of DBQ, distinguishing behaviors as errors, ordinary violations, and aggressive violation. However, after Varimax rotation, CATPCA explained 11% more variance compared to FA and 2% more than PCA. We identified cross-loadings among the component of the techniques. An item changed its dimension in the CATPCA results but did not change the structural interpretability. Individual scores from dimension 1 of CATPCA were significantly different from FA and PCA. Individual scores from factor 1 of CATPCA were significantly different from FA and PCA. Practical applications: The CATPCA seems to be more advantageous in order to represent the original data and considering data constrains. In addition to finding an interpretable factorial structure, the representation of the original data is regarded as relevant since the factor scores could be used for crash prediction in future analyses. 相似文献
8.
Uncertainty characterization for emergy values 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Wesley W. Ingwersen 《Ecological modelling》2010,221(3):445-3081
While statistical estimation of uncertainty has not typically accompanied published emergy values, as with any other quantitative model, uncertainty is embedded in these values, and lack of uncertainty characterization makes their accuracy not only opaque, it also prevents the use of emergy values in statistical tests of hypotheses. This paper first attempts to describe sources of uncertainty in unit emergy values (UEVs) and presents a framework for estimating this uncertainty with analytical and stochastic models, with model choices dependent upon on how the UEV is calculated and what kind of uncertainties are quantified. The analytical model can incorporate a broader spectrum of uncertainty types than the stochastic model, including model and scenario uncertainty, which may be significant in emergy models, but is only appropriate for the most basic of emergy calculations. Although less comprehensive in its incorporation of uncertainty, the proposed stochastic method is suitable for all types of UEVs. The distributions of unit emergy values approximate the lognormal distribution with variations depending on the types of uncertainty quantified as well as the way the UEVs are calculated. While both methods of estimating uncertainty in UEVs have their limitations in their presented stage of development, this paper provides methods for incorporating uncertainty into emergy, and demonstrates how this can be depicted and propagated so that it can be used in future emergy analyses and permit emergy to be more readily incorporated into other methods of environmental assessment, such as LCA. 相似文献
9.
Probability of intellectual disability is associated with soil concentrations of arsenic and lead 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Background
The association between metals in water and soil and adverse child neurologic outcomes has focused on the singular effect of lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As). This study describes the complex association between soil concentrations of As combined with Pb and the probability of intellectual disability (ID) in children.Methods
We used a retrospective cohort design with 3988 mother child pairs who were insured by Medicaid and lived during pregnancy and early childhood in South Carolina between 1/1/97 and 12/31/02. The children were followed until 6/1/08, using computerized service files, to identify the diagnosis of ID in medical records and verified by either school placement or disability service records. The soil was sampled using a uniform grid and analyzed for eight metals. The metal concentrations were interpolated using Bayesian Kriging to estimate concentration at individual residences.Results
The probability of ID increased for increasing concentrations of As and Pb in the soil. The Odds Ratio for ID, for one unit change in As was 1.130 (95% confidence interval 1.048-1.218) for Pb was 1.002 (95% confidence interval 1.000-1.004). We identified effect modification for the infants based on their birth weight for gestational age status and only infants who were normal size for their gestational age had increased probability of ID based on the As and Pb soil concentrations (OR for As at normal weight for gestational age = 1.151 (95% CI: 1.061-1.249) and OR for Pb at normal for gestational age = 1.002 (95% CI: 1.002-1.004)). For normal weight for gestational age children when As = 22 mg kg−1 and Pb = 200 mg kg−1 the risk for ID was 11% and when As = 22 mg kg−1and Pb = 400 mg kg−1 the probability of ID was 65%.Conclusion
The probability of ID is significantly associated with the interaction between Pb and As for normal weight for gestational age infants. 相似文献10.
为探索乡镇尺度上土壤属性空间分布预测的最佳方法,以江西省万年县齐埠镇为例,借助四方位搜索法、地统计学和遥感影像分析技术提取环境因子(地形因子和植被覆盖指数)和邻近信息[w(有机质)与w(速效钾)],构建OK法(普通克里金法)、RK1法(仅基于环境因子的回归克里金法)以及RK2法(基于环境因子和邻近信息的回归克里金法)对齐埠镇耕地表层(0~20 cm)土壤w(有机质)、w(速效钾)空间分布进行预测.结果表明:齐埠镇土壤w(有机质)平均值为35.03 g/kg,w(速效钾)平均值为96.73 mg/kg,均为中等空间变异性.对62个样点进行建模,16个测试样点进行独立验证的误差分析表明,RK2法对土壤w(有机质)、w(速效钾)预测结果的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均相对误差较OK法分别降低了18.05%、18.01%、21.77%和7.25%、9.49%、9.84%;较RK1法分别降低了22.48%、20.91%、22.02%和9.27%、12.61%、13.52%.研究显示,RK2法明显提高了土壤w(有机质)、w(速效钾)空间分布模拟精度,并且存在改进和提高的空间. 相似文献